Illustrating Probability through Roulette: A Spreadsheet Simulation Model

dc.creator	Kala Chand Seal
dc.creator	Zbigniew H. Przasnyski
dc.date	2005-11-01T00:00:00Z
dc.date.accessioned	2015-07-20T22:11:44Z
dc.date.available	2015-07-20T22:11:44Z
dc.identifier	1448-6156
dc.identifier	https://doaj.org/article/deb5f0f0d474437899f77d8aab0ea2c6
dc.identifier.uri	http://evidence.thinkportal.org/handle/123456789/14650
dc.description	Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the students to fully grasp the underlying meaning and effect of the concepts. Games can provide a way to address this issue. For example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a model of roulette in a spreadsheet that can simulate outcomes of various betting strategies. The simulations can be analyzed to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting strategy known as the bet-doubling, or Martingale, strategy. This strategy is quite popular and is often erroneously perceived as a winning strategy even though the probability analysis shows that such a perception is incorrect. The simulation allows us to present the true implications of such a strategy for a player with a limited betting budget and relate the results to the underlying theoretical probability structure. The overall validation of the model, its use for teaching, including its application to analyze other types of betting strategies are discussed.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	Faculty of Information Technology, Bond University
dc.relation	http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1028&context=ejsie
dc.relation	https://doaj.org/toc/1448-6156
dc.source	Spreadsheets in Education, Vol 2, Iss 1, Pp 73-94 (2005)
dc.subject	Martingale Strategy
dc.subject	Modeling
dc.subject	Probability
dc.subject	Roulette
dc.subject	Simulation
dc.subject	Spreadsheets
dc.subject	Statistics
dc.subject	Theory and practice of education
dc.subject	LB5-3640
dc.subject	Education
dc.subject	L
dc.subject	DOAJ:Education
dc.subject	DOAJ:Social Sciences
dc.subject	Theory and practice of education
dc.subject	LB5-3640
dc.subject	Education
dc.subject	L
dc.subject	DOAJ:Education
dc.subject	DOAJ:Social Sciences
dc.subject	Theory and practice of education
dc.subject	LB5-3640
dc.subject	Education
dc.subject	L
dc.subject	Theory and practice of education
dc.subject	LB5-3640
dc.subject	Education
dc.subject	L
dc.subject	Theory and practice of education
dc.subject	LB5-3640
dc.subject	Education
dc.subject	L
dc.title	Illustrating Probability through Roulette: A Spreadsheet Simulation Model
dc.type	article