On improving dynamic decision-making: implications from multiple-process cognitive theory

Abstract

Decision environments that afford unambiguous and transparent feedback allow humans to build up corresponding mental models that give them good decision guidance. But in many complex decision situations, such feedback is not available. In such environments people not only show initial misperceptions, but also fail to learn. Education and training have therefore been proposed, but with limited success. This paper applies multiple-process cognitive theory to explain findings of poor learning and sub-optimal decision-making. The applied theory suggests that intuitive processes are default in decision-making and natural learning. Analytic processes are more seldom applied. Implications for education and training in dynamic decision-making are suggested, and in light of the primacy of intuitive processes, include massive exposure to complex dynamic decision-making in order to improve upon intuition in such environments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.